74's PRESEASON PROGNOSTICATION FOR AAAA

[Rebel-Fan-74]

NFL Draft projections for 2013 have already started to appear on web pages, Bowl Projections are popping up on a few sites as well. Why can’t we go ahead and talk Playoff Projections for AAAA?

I’ve been doing the projections for several years and the only reason I do them is to provide a thread for folks to have some fun with and talk about.

For the most part, I’ve waiting to do my first projections until week four or five to allow time to understand what teams have going them that season. It allows time to see what the rest of the season will be like. It allows time to have some of the good wins and bad losses and those God awful “upsets” that seem to happen year after year.

Then last season, I put out my first projections on Tue Aug 02, 2011 2:35 pm. (you can search and find the thread if you want to) Let’s take a glance back at those predictions and how they turned out… The actual seeding is in parenthesis


For Division One,
1 Byrnes Rebels (2)
2 Lexington Wildcats (3)
3 Gaffney Indians (1)
4 Dutch Fork Silver Foxes (4)
5 Fort Dorchester Patriots (10)
6 Sumter Fighting Gamecocks (8)
7 Dorman Cavaliers (9)
8 Summerville Green Wave (7)
9 Irmo Yellow Jackets (13)
10 Wando Warriors (11)
11 Mauldin Mavericks (12)
12 Boiling Springs Bulldogs (5)
13 Blythewood Bengals (14)
14 Rock Hill Bearcats (15)
15 Spartanburg Vikings (6)
16 White Knoll Timberwolves (15 in Division II)

And for Division Two

1 Goose Creek Gators (1)
2 Greenwood Eagles (2)
3 Northwestern Trojans (9)
4 Stratford Knights (6)
5 North Augusta Yellow Jackets (5)
6 Conway Tigers (11)
7 T.L. Hanna Yellow Jackets (not in Playoffs)
8 Clover Blue Eagles (not in Playoffs)
9 Beaufort Eagles (not in Playoffs)
10 Lugoff-Elgin Demons (not in Playoffs)
11 Aiken Fighting Green Hornets (not in Playoffs)
12 Richland Northeast Cavaliers (8)
13 J.L. Mann Patriots (12)
14 South Florence Bruins (13)
15 Easley Green Wave (7)
16 Wren Golden Hurricanes (10)

BOLD would indicate teams that I had as the Region Champions.

The first thing I note is that I had Byrnes and Goose Creek at the top of their respective lists. Not a bad start…. To be perfectly honest, I went back and forth between Byrnes and Gaffney as the #1 overall seed many, many times.

Now, there were some choices for Region Champs that panned out quite well, Byrnes, Lexington, Dutch Fork, Gaffney, Goose Creek and Greenwood. There were a couple that really didn’t work out… Sumter and Fort Dorchester. Sumter was down, way down for a team with their history. Now Fort D was close, but fell just short. Had they beaten Ashley Ridge I would have picked 7 of 8. Now, Six out of Eight is still a good showing and I’m completely satisfied with those results.

Now for the teams in the playoff, out of 32 teams, I had 27 in the field or about 85% of the field. Of the teams that I had making the field that didn’t make it, Beaufort was the one team that I was the most surprised not making the playoffs. Now, just like Fort D, they were one win away from being there.

So, all in all, I was quite pleased with the predictions from last year, especially since they happened before the first fall practice took place. Now as I prepare for the 2012 Season Projections, I will say what I always say before putting myself out there for folks to take shots at…

Have fun with these projections! I know that I am not a professional journalist and that I don’t work for ESPN or even the local newspaper. I’m just someone that loves South Carolina AAAA Football, especially a team from Duncan; however, I have some ties to Conway, Summerville, Beaufort, Gaffney, and Goose Creek as well.

Bottom Line: I do this for two reasons:

(1) I enjoy doing the projections
(2) I want folks to have fun with the projections

OK, here we go with 2012….

Division One has some changes, but not that many. The re-alignment brings Gaffney back to Region Two and that means only one of these three ( Byrnes – Dorman – Gaffney ) can be a Region Winner and a top five seed. The runner up will be somewhere around #6 or possibly #5 and the third place finisher will likely be #7 or worse. Now I know Boiling Springs and Spartanburg could be one of the top three in Region Two, but I’m just laying out the possibilities now. We will get to the actual projections in just a minute.

So to figure out the actual seeds, we have to look at Region Champs. The threads that ask folks to predict the champions have produced some interesting results and we can be assured that no one will agree with my predictions 100% but here they are:

Reg ---------- School ---------- Division
1 ---------- Greenwood ------------ 2
2 ---------- Byrnes ---------------- 1
3 ---------- South Pointe ---------- 2
4 ---------- Blythewood ----------- 1
5 ---------- Dutch Fork ------------ 1
6 ---------- Conway --------------- 2
7 ---------- Goose Creek ----------- 2
8 ---------- Fort Dorchester -------- 1

With four Region Champs from each Division, that means that the best you can hope for as a Region Runner Up will be the #5 seed. To explain for the “newbies” the Region Champions are seeded first, then the Region Runner Ups, then everyone else who qualifies for the playoff will be seeded together regardless of their Region Standings. With that in mind, you have to understand that a 3-8 Region Champ will be seeded before a 10-1 runner up.

Region One is the easiest one for me as I see Greenwood as head and shoulders ahead of anyone else in the Region. For Region Two, the statement about Gaffney and Byrnes from last year applies again this year…. and Region Three came down to South Pointe and Northwestern. Region Four, I don’t know why but I decided on Blythewood and Dutch Fork in Region Five is a complete headscratcher for me… (not for who to pick, I quickly went with Dutch Fork, but Irmo is much closer to Lexington and White Knoll than Dutch Fork, but some how the Silver Foxes get moved???). Region Six, Tigerific said I had to pick Conway, so I did. I’m sold on Goose Creek in Region Seven and I have to tell you, the most wide open Region in my feeble mind, is Region Eight and I picked Fort Dorchester just to tick off GoBigGreen, just kidding!!!

Using those predictions, here are the brackets:

FOR DIVISION ONE

1 Byrnes
16 Sumter

8 Lexington
9 Spartanburg

4 Blythewood
13 Ridge View

5 Gaffney
12 Boiling Springs
================================
2 Fort Dorchester
15 Irmo

7 Dorman
10 Rock Hill

3 Dutch Fork
14 Wando

6 Summerville
11 Mauldin




AND FOR DIVISION TWO

1 Goose Creek
16 Laurens

8 J L Mann
9 South Florence

4 Conway
13 Easley

5 Stratford
12 Beaufort
================================
2 South Pointe
15 York

7 North Augusta
10 Richland Northeast

3 Greenwood
14 Wade Hampton

6 Northwestern
11 Ashley Ridge

Go ahead and pick this apart and have fun with it, but don’t take it too seriously….

[Do_It_Right!!!!!]

hate to mess things up....but Blythewood will most likely move down to division 2 because of the split .....they will probably have about 1450 students

Not sure about Ridge View, but they may move down also because of the opening of Westwood

[Don316625]

No Bluffton........cue up Newcat in 5.....4......3....2......1......

[CITYSLICKER]

THE CATS WILL WIN REG 8, ME AND THE CATLICKER SAY SO.

[Rebel-Fan-74]

hate to mess things up....but Blythewood will most likely move down to division 2 because of the split .....they will probably have about 1450 students

Not sure about Ridge View, but they may move down also because of the opening of Westwood

All I can go by at this point is what is showing on the http://www.schsl.org website...

[SF Band dad]

Big 16 status is determined by the most recent 135-ADM, not the actual enrollment in the fall. The 2011-12 numbers should have been published by the Dept. of Education last month. Searching now....

[newcatntown]

No Bluffton........cue up Newcat in 5.....4......3....2......1......

WHAT!!!!!???? NO BLUFFTON??? LOL!!!! Good one Don!! Im not gettin my hair in a twist over a prediction! We will be just fine and dandy come Nov.!!

[Cowboys33]

No Bluffton........cue up Newcat in 5.....4......3....2......1......

Was thinking the same thing when I first read it

[DeCavelier]

I won't complain about our bracket if it turns out like that. I was thinking that as far as Dorman fell last year we still wound up in the final 4 of Div 1. Not too bad.

I wonder what the stats are on all final four teams going back the last half dozen years or so for both divisions. Might make for an interesting thread.

[Rebel-Fan-74]

Big 16 status is determined by the most recent 135-ADM, not the actual enrollment in the fall. The 2011-12 numbers should have been published by the Dept. of Education last month. Searching now....

The new AAAA handbook will be posted next month according to folks that I talked to so I went with the best information that I had....